Listen.  Can you hear it?  The music.  I can hear it everywhere.  In the wind.  In the air.  In the light.  It’s all around us.  All you have to do is open yourself up.  All you have to do is listen. 

Where I’ve grown up, they tried to stop me from hearing the music.  But when I’m alone, it builds up from inside me.  And I think that if I could learn how to play it, they might hear me.  They would know I was theirs.  And find me. 

Sometimes the world tries to knock it out of you.  But I believe in music the way that some people believe in fairy tales.  I like to imagine that what I hear came from my mother and father.  Maybe the notes I hear are the same ones they heard…the night they met.  Maybe that’s how they found each other.  I believe that once upon a time, long ago, they heard the music.   And followed it.

Music is God’s reminder that theres something else in this universe besides us. 

The music is all around us.  All you have to do is listen.

From the time I started this blog, I’ve put some pretty personal information out there. I know that this kind of sharing makes some people wonder…why? I don’t have to look farther than my my own wife to find someone who couldn’t imagine sharing the information that I’ve chosen to include in some of my posts. For those of you who sympathize with that view, I don’t intend on trying to change your mind. I’ve had enough fruitless conversations with family and friends wherein I’ve attempted to explain the evolving ubiquity of social media. People will get it when they’re ready to get it.

The reason I bring it up in this post is that I intend to keep sharing. Why? I know that sharing personal information leaves me open to criticism. But perhaps I’m just delusional enough to believe that if something I post influences even one person to evolve their thinking, I may have changed someone’s life. Maybe, just maybe, I will have influenced more than one person. Maybe even you?

When I was 20 years old, someone recommended a book that influenced me greatly (I don’t remember who…speak up if you’re out there). The book’s title was a complete turn off to me, as it sounded like a self-help book to help you develop a phony persona in order to get ahead. Nothing could possibly alienate me more than that…phoniness. I am, and always have been, nothing if not authentically me. I’ve never cared whether that got me in trouble, set me back in my career, caused riffs in my relationships, etc. Nothing has ever, nor will ever, make me pretend to be something I’m not. Anyway, I digress. The book’s content belied its title. It was, and remains to this day, the most powerful and important book I’ve ever read. I imagine that’s why it’s been on bestsellers lists for something like decades since its publishing. Enough build-up. The book is “The Seven Habits of Highly Effective People”. I could not more highly recommend a book, particularly for those in the early innings of their personal development work. I even bought a copy for every one of my 12 brothers and sisters for Christmas 15 years ago (and to this day, I’m not sure if a single one of them has read it). I’ve read and re-read the book 3 times, summarized the key points (which are numerous) transferred them to my iPhone, and continue to reference them often.

One of the most meaningful areas in the book is the discussion of developing a personal mission statement. Most of us are familiar with the idea of a mission statement, as many businesses and organizations we’re involved with have adopted one to guide organizational decision making. But as far as I’ve been able to tell, precious few of us have taken the time to develop a personal mission statement to guide our own decision making. And while there is no substitute for the process of developing one yourself, I will post mine here for you to co-opt as you see fit. I developed it 15 years ago, and it has been a very useful guide. My hope is that it will either inspire you to develop your own, or perhaps work for you as an off the shelf solution (substitute your own spouse’s name as necessary!).

DRT (December, 1995):

My family always comes first - without them, life is hollow.

My 3 main priorities are:

1) Raising children in a secure, nurturing environment, developing the tools necessary for them to flourish and enjoy life, each in their own way.

2) Maintaining a comfortable, secure environment in which Jane feels free to persue her dreams and encouraged to enjoy her life.

3) Maintain my own course of self actualization by continually striving for balance between producing golden eggs and taking care of the goose.

Specifically, I will:

Put first things first, reducing and/or eliminating unimportant pastimes which are incongruent with my values

Make sure that every day, I let Jane and the kids know how much I love them, as much by my actions as by my words.

Be the loving, caring, supportive, patient, reliable, appreciative, respectful, encouraging, loyal, faithful husband that Jane deserves, and I promised I’d be.

Be the loving, supportive, patient, just, nurturing, encouraging, non judgemental teacher and father that the kids deserve and I want to be.

Take an active role in the kids’ education through active participation in homework, projects, and athletics; inspiring wonder through activity and conversation; and relating my own experiences and lessons learned.

Teach when the relationship is good, and the potential for impact is greatest, not when the air is charged with emotion.

Plan more family and couple activities with Jane and the kids, both together and individually, that will nurture all of our inter-relationships.

Nurture my spirituality through quiet reflection and meditation on nature, seeking knowledge and inspiration in its perfect order and beauty (sunrise/set, ocean, woods, stars, everyday observation).

Reach out to parents, brothers and sisters, and nieces and nephews, promoting unity, tolerance, and support.

Show respect for my parents, both in my words and my actions.

Provide the leadership necessary to forge substantive, lasting friendships.

Lead by example, inspiring others to be their best, and lending credibility to my words.

Use my unique talent of conciliation to bring people together in all areas of my life, working through differences to areas of commonality. Do more persuasive and emotive writing and speaking to affect positive change in my circle of influence.

Consciously choose to be happy, generating positive energy by smiling purposely (never leave my place of meditation). Sidestep negative energy, don’t empower it.

Consciously create perspective expanding experiences through visualization of life events, milestones. Apply the power of visualization to all areas of life.

Keep a journal to maintain my self awareness as I progress through life, recording my thoughts and reflections for myself and my posterity.

Listen more, and speak less. Defend those who are not present.

Slow down every area of my life, focusing on quality results instead of quantity of time, information.

Value simplicity and selflessness above material things.

Learn continuously from everyday experiences as well as maintain a regular program of inspirational reading and activities.

Treat all people with kindness and fairness, spreading joy and learning from perspectives that are different from my own.

Subordinate impulses to my values, listening closely to the quiet but ever-present voice of conscience.

Keep my mind and body healthy by getting the proper exercise, sleep, and nutrition.

Serve my community in areas where I can have the most impact - coaching, school service, volunteer.

Be a model, not a critic. Be a light, not a judge.

When I’m no longer physically here, I will live on in the people I affected, and those they affect, and on and on… and therein I will have eternal life.

DRT

I’ve been meaning to write about a revelation I had recently, just prior to my final weekend of coach training at IPEC (Institute for Professional Excellence in Coaching…which, by the way, if you ever entertain the idea of becoming a coach, is an excellent school full of genuinely good people doing their part to raise the consciousness of humanity.)

The revelation came during an argument with my wife…I’ll explain later.  But first, a brief story.  Once upon a time, I met my wife, Jane, in grade school.  I remember watching her play CYO basketball and wondering who was that tall, skinny, sassy center for St. Genevieve.  Subsequently, we got together every summer while vacationing at Long Beach Island.  She and I were the only people we knew who went to LBI, and our houses were on the same street (an eighteen mile long island…what are the chances?).  Jane’s mother Barbara was apparently a teenage beauty queen, and my older sisters (then around 8-10 years old) would brush Jane’s mother’s hair, and generally fawn over her on the beach before Jane and I were even born.  When Jane transferred to my high school junior year, we began dating shortly thereafter.  Aside from a few wrong turns over the next couple years, we were basically inseparable.  By 21, we were married and expecting the first of what would turn out to be 5 children over the next ten years.  And we’ve lived happily ever after.

Of course, ‘once upon a time’ and ‘happily ever after’ are purposely meant to connote the image of a fairy tale. The reason I included this abridged version of the story of Jane and me in this piece is for effect.  Anyone who has been married for any length of time knows that the daily trials of living with the same human being day after day, year after year, is not the stuff of fairy tales.  That’s not a knock on marriage, nor is it a statement particular to our relationship.  It is simply an acknowledgement of the difficulty of having to make decisions about so many things, large and small, together.  Most individuals have no problem taking life as it comes at them, making decisions as necessary to react to their changing environment.  But once married, so many decisions become complicated by necessary consideration for someone else’s point of view.  And as evolution would have it (in order to create maximum dissonance for each individual), the point of view of our spouse is very often in sharp contrast to our own.  And yet decisions must be made.  Whole wheat or white bread?  Cook at home or order dinner?  Day care and dual income or stay home Mom/Dad and scrape by?  Stay at home Mom or Dad? Catholic or public school?  And the list of decisions, minor and major, goes on and on.  

Our ability to effectively cope with having to consider our spouse’s point of view in every decision we make and action we take varies.  To many, it’s suffocating and frustrating.  To others, it’s natural and they roll with it.  And in between these clear extremes, there are many shades of grey.  Probably the second most important thing I’ve learned (rather, am still learning) over the past 25 years, is to talk less and listen more.  After all, how can you really consider another person’s point of view when you’re busy thinking about how what they’re saying relates to you and what you’re going to say the second they finish their sentence - or sooner?  But I digress.  

Even more important than talking less and listening more, I believe (my wife may disagree), is learning to look inward for answers to the issues that confront you.

“The mature person is like the archer, who when he misses the bullseye, turns and seeks the reason for his failure in himself.” (Confucius)

In addition to providing the forum within which to learn to listen actively in consideration of another person’s point of view, marriage also provides the ideal forum within which to blame another person for all of your problems and deficiencies.  After all, if it wasn’t for YOU! I wouldn’t have to work; if it wasn’t for YOU! I wouldn’t be so angry; if it wasn’t for YOU! I would be happy.  Really?  Some or all of these statements and more have been uttered (sometimes probably yelled) by most of us.  And they are all examples of how we view our problems and deficiencies as external, outside our control.  The reality, though, is that all of our problems and deficiencies are internal, and completely within our control.  When we internalize that truth, we begin the process of personal evolution that I will call Conscious Selection.  

In Darwin’s Natural Selection, the external environment triggers survival adaptations that are then passed down genetically through successive generations.  Conscious Selection is the process whereby individuals choose to (or not…after all ignorance is bliss) respond to the triggers in their external environment by looking inward and making the changes within themselves that these triggers dictate.  A few examples should be illustrative.  Imagine that nearly every time you drink hard liquor, you find yourself the next day regretting something you said or did the night before.  Was it bad liquor?  No. It was bad behavior.  You might decide after 20 or so years of this to stop drinking hard liquor, and maybe be more aware of how much you’re drinking in general.  You might find that you don’t have that behavior problem anymore.  Of course, the law of unintended consequences may dictate that you’re now having less fun drinking than you previously did.  But you may also find that you have fewer instances of conflict with your spouse, and thus, more sex.  Conscious Selection at work.  Imagine again that your new boss is all over you the way your old boss never was.  He’s checking your work constantly, pointing out insignificant deficiencies and really holding your nose to the grindstone.  One way to cope is to classify him as a jerk, and let him dictate your new miserable outlook at work.  Is that going to solve anything?  The Conscious Selection way to look at the situation is to …LOOK INWARD…maybe you do need to be more aware of some of those ‘insignificant deficiencies’ if you’re going to be continue to grow in your current role and be considered for promotion.  Maybe this jerk is exactly what you needed in order to get you focused on something you never realized about yourself.  So you pay more attention to detail, and he notices the improvement and backs off.  In the months that follow, you realize he’s not such a jerk.  He’s just a stickler for detail.  That’s how he got to where he is.  In fact, you’ve become aware of the importance of details now, and voila, the next thing you know you’re being promoted.  Conscious Selection at work.

These are just two simple examples that are meant to illustrate the choice we all have…to evolve, or not to evolve.  You can continue to blame your boss, your wife, your parents, et al for all the problems they have created for you…OR…you can LISTEN to what people are saying, and LOOK INWARD, like Confucius’ archer, and seek the reason for your problems within yourself.  Just as in Darwin’s Evolution, the external environment is constantly presenting challenges that trigger physical adaptations in order to survive, so too is our external environment constantly presenting us with opportunities to evolve ourselves consciously.  It’s your choice.  You can choose to look at every challenge as a problem, or you can choose to look at every challenge as an opportunity to better yourself on the path of continuous self-improvement.  Those who choose to accept the challenge of Conscious Selection will reap the rewards of happiness, self actualization, and meaning in life.  Those who don’t…well, we know what happened to the Neanderthal, right?

I mentioned earlier that I had this Conscious Selection revelation during an argument with my wife.  At some point during the argument, I thought to myself “whether she’s right or wrong this time, why don’t I just use this opportunity to commit to making the change that I know is right?”  I immediately had a moment of perfect clarity.  It was like the clouds parted and I had just figured out a secret of Life.  Everything that annoys me or challenges me is an opportunity to practice acceptance, or patience, or unconditional love, or some other virtue that I value…an opportunity to evolve consciously. In fact, every single interaction in Life is an opportunity to evolve consciously.  We could go way down the rabbit hole and explore how all this relates to the interaction between consciousness, quantum physics, and Life…but that’s for another post.

Those of you who know me know that I Love my wife.  I’ve never been ashamed to profess that openly, whether privately to her, or publicly among friends if the subject of spouses is being discussed.  It’s not bluster, and it’s not a facade.  Rather, it’s a genuine appreciation of all that I’ve witnessed with her over the past 25 years. Is she perfect?  Of course not. But neither am I.  Are there things about her I’d like to change?  Of course there are.  Just as there are many things about me that she would change as well.  But the dilemma of life is that we cannot change each other.  Rather, we can only change ourselves.  The ironic thing is, in changing ourselves, we inspire others to do the same.  It is only in changing ourselves that we can hope to change others, and change the world at large.  People follow example much more freely than they follow advice.  We’re all familiar with the beautiful Ghandi quote “Be the change you wish to see…”

If you LISTEN and LOOK INWARD, everything will change, but LOVE REMAINS THE SAME.

The way to success in INWARD.

“I, never thought that I, had any more to give, pushing me so far, here I am without you; Drink, to all that we have lost, mistakes we have made, everything will change, Love remains the same.” (Gavin Rossdale)

25 years ago, in the hours before dawn on a warm summer night on Long Beach Island, 3 young boys, newly minted friends, stood staring into the darkness at the vast Atlantic ocean. With a clarity of mind that a good buzz provides (by removing the inhibition of thought and speech), these young boys made a pledge to never let their friendship fade. They’d noticed how their fathers and uncles had drifted apart from their male friends over time, and wondered aloud why it happens, and how they could keep it from happening to them. They decided that the surest way to prevent it was to schedule an inviolable annual get together, wherein they would rekindle their friendship no matter the obstacles (distance, work, women, et al) that life threw at them in the years ahead.

For the next 25 years, these young boys met each summer for an extended weekend of Revelry (yes, that’s a capital R) in the remote wilderness, far from any civilization they might disturb (which they learned in the early years, when camping near civilization, and found themselves to be very disturbing indeed). Thankfully, this fair land offers a variety of remote places to camp, hike, climb, fish, swim, float, jump fires, fall in fires, cut snakes heads off, eat like kings (thanks, Shartzky), play guitar, do lots of ripcords, fall down, etc. These things, and many more, they did each summer as they honored the pledge they had made. As word spread of the fun they were having, a group of disciples formed, and joined in the Revelry, taking the annual boys trip to a whole ‘nother level.

Many years passed, and the boys grew older. One of the original boys, now 39 years old, began to feel and fear the effects that the extended weekend of Revelry was having on his brain. He also reasoned that some of the fortunate near misses that had occurred in recent years (like near heart-attacks, near fatal falls, or near full-body third-degree burns, which thanks to the fortunate last second nudge of a fellow camper, ended up only on his calf), might not always nearly miss. So he decided that either the nature of the trip had to change, or he would have to remove himself from it. He talked with the other pledge mates about his dilemma, and found them to be very understanding and supportive. There seemed to be broad agreement that the trip was on a collision course with space-time, and that perhaps it was time to get back to basics and do more hiking, climbing, something, anything that would keep us occupied during the day and put some limits on what was a near-24 hour/4 day Revelry festival. But alas, not all the disciples agreed, and so the boys trip has carried on in its usual form, only now without “Day One Danny”.

Yeah, that’s me - Day One Danny. So named because of my seemingly innate ability to get to a higher elevation earlier than most on Day One of the boys trip. Sometimes that led to a funny incident, sometimes it led to an early trip to the tent. The truth is, I’ve always been ahead of the curve. For some reason, even as a teenager, I was thinking big thoughts about my place in the world, our place in the universe, the nature of God, the meaning of life, etc. For some reason, I had my first child while in college, and I was completely ready for it. For some reason, I managed to stay well ahead of the curve in my career. My camping buddies may not fully understand my need for a change right now, but I know that it’s because, for some reason, I’m a little ahead of the curve again. My guess is that in the next few years, the same pull I’m feeling now to stop abusing my brain and body will be felt by most, if not all, of my fellow Revelers. When it is, I stand ready to pledge allegiance for the next 25 years on an annual boys trip that is sustainable over that horizon. In fact, I’m just gonna go ahead and get it started, just like I did in the hours before dawn on Long Beach Island 25 years ago.

“You’ve got to know when to hold ‘em, know when to fold ‘em, know when to walk away, and know when to run.”

- Kenny Rogers “The Gambler”

It’s 2:30am, and I can’t sleep, so I’m going to write. I’ve been thinking a lot lately about IMITATION. It strikes me that much of what we do as humans is simply imitate the actions of others. This practice of imitation goes back as far as humanity’s origins, I imagine. It is perhaps most explicit in the practice of religion, wherein humans continue to imitate the behavior of the likes of Jesus, Siddhartha Gautama (Buddha), Mohammed and others over 2,000 years after their death. Secular figures from our recent past, such as Ghandi, Martin Luther King Jr and others, inspire imitation of another sort to humanitarians around the globe.

What is it that inspires our imitation of these fellow humans? I suppose it has something to do with our judgment that they have set an example worthy of our following.

Perhaps the most common form of imitation that takes place in our society, and in societies throughout history, is the imitation of parents by their children. So do children imitate their parents because they’ve made a judgment about the quality of the example being set? No. Children imitate their parents because that’s how they’ve learned everything from the time they entered the world. It’s a reliable habit that has helped them learn so many cool things like, well, everything that they know how to do. As such, parenting is an enormous…

…OPPORTUNITY. Yes, it’s also an enormous undertaking, an enormous responsibility, etc. But more than any of the other possible endings of that sentence, it’s an enormous opportunity.

It’s an opportunity to fulfill the hopes and dreams of our own parents. In the final analysis, parents rest in peace knowing that they’ve raised children who will themselves be good parents.

It’s an opportunity to fulfill the responsibility we felt when we first brought new life into the world, and that we continue to feel when we have occasion to revisit our outsized impact on the unique human lives in our care.

It’s also an opportunity to fulfill the dreams of our children themselves. Besides being a tried and true habit with evolutionary side benefits, we are also our childrens’ heroes. They imitate us because they want to be JUST LIKE US. Whoa. Maybe I need to rethink whether to end that earlier sentence with …RESPONSIBILITY instead.

In fact, whether we think about it every day or not, we are the most important role model in our childrens’ lives…by far. We ought to stop complaining about the behavior of our sports figures, and begin asking ourselves more consistently whether our behaviors are setting an example worthy of imitation by our children. They may not be old enough to make the judgement yet, but inevitably they will. And when it comes, that judgement, however ill-informed and disagreeable, will be largely shared by us and remain with us forever. So I guess in the end …OPPORTUNITY is the right way to look at it.

“Confucius says the mature person resembles the archer, who when he misses the bullseye, turns and seeks the reason for his failure in himself.”

“When you understand how to love one thing, then you understand how best to love everything.”

Dan Taylor

What we remember - Eulogy for Arthur Bagby Taylor

A few months ago, my Dad was talking about how he didn’t have much longer to live (probably trying to get me to take him golfing or out for oysters).  He told me that he was going to write some things down that he wanted me to read at his funeral.  Today, like so many others of you, I wish I had taken him golfing or out for oysters one last time; just as I’m sure he wished he had written down those things he wanted to say to us all.  Since he passed last week, I’ve gathered some thoughts from the family, hoping to capture some of what Art maybe wanted to say.
 

Firstly, as he told us so many times over the roar of the party that is the Taylor family, “I love you all!”

My Dad made all of his decisions first and foremost with his family in mind.  He would do anything for his family or close friends.  Whether we were in the right or wrong, he always had your back, and always stood up for you when you needed him.  He often went out of his way to help friends or strangers in need.  He was always prepared to spring into action in an emergency, even make a citizens arrest at a moments notice. Like the time he pulled up beside the car in front of us who had just thrown a bag of fast food trash out of the car window, and threatened to throw them out of the car if they didn’t go back and pick it up. Or the time Jack Bucci stepped on a shell on the beach at LBI and sliced his foot open badly.  Art was fishing nearby, and swept Jack up, his foot gushing blood, and rushed him to the nearest doctor.  The doctor told Art he wouldn’t work on the boy without insurance…ha!  Art managed to quickly convince him otherwise.

There are so many stories…to be continued at the MacSwiney Club after mass today.

My Dad always said he wouldn’t have changed a thing about the way he lived his life.  He always tried to do what he thought was right, never mind the minor fact that he was always right and everyone else was wrong.  He was a man of principle, which when taken to the extreme meant that he would knowingly sacrifice career success to maintain his integrity.  After working at Bell Telephone for 19 years, Art was passed over for promotion to management due to a new company policy to hire newly minted college graduates for management positions…he told his boss to have his final paycheck ready by the end of the day.  He came home and told my mom that he had just left his job of 19 years, and didn’t have another job lined up.  She probably started counting kids wondering how they were going to live, but she stood by him as she did throughout his entire life.  He decided to sell insurance, but when the president of the company held a luncheon for the 30 or so salesmen and gave a “rah rah” speech, as my dad described it, Art stood up and challenged the guy in front of the whole group what he had ever sold that made him such an expert.  Needless to say, calling the company President on the carpet in front of a room full of people didn’t go over too well.  But my Dad just couldn’t keep inside what was on his mind.  He wore his thoughts and emotions on his sleeve for all to see and hear.  He may not have retired with a fortune, but he retired with his integrity firmly intact.

My Dad was very proud to have served his country.  Of course he chose one of the riskiest activities as a paratrooper; but he wouldn’t have it any other way.  He believed deeply that the freedom that we enjoy as Americans is something each of us should be willing to fight for.  If you disagreed with that, he’d be glad to step outside and settle the issue like men.

My Dad loved to have a good time, and if you were within a half mile, you would hear him laughing, singing, or yelling, depending on the situation.  No one I know has ever heard a louder voice than my Dad’s.  He loved all the time spent over the years with family and friends on Long Beach Island, playing and drinking Gin, fishing, and just hanging out with neighbors and friends.  He always said he didn’t want us to mourn his passing when it came, but to celebrate his life.  He lived a full life, with few, if any regrets. He lived life on his terms, he did things his way, and he was genuinely happy and fulfilled.  My dad wasn’t a perfect man, but who among us is?

They say that before you judge a man you ought to walk a mile in his shoes.  I think Art’s judgment day, on this earth at least, is safe for now.  That is until any one us raises 13 Children, 27 grand-children, and 6 great-grandchildren, all after having helped his mother raise his 6 younger siblings during the depression in Portsmouth, Ohio (Life magazine labeled it the poorest town in America), watching his youngest sibling die in infancy, then going on to serve his country in occupied Japan at the end of World War II.

My own feelings toward my Dad have evolved over the years, as I know many of my siblings’ have.  I found them pretty well summed up in a note written by one of the grandkids over the weekend down at LBI, and I quote:   “When I was younger, Grandpop and I didn’t have the greatest relationship, maybe because we were so much alike or I was just a crazy kid.  But once I became older and more respectful I realized that he had a lot of good advice to give.  I think he had one of the biggest hearts, and so much love to give for a person who had so many people to love.  He started this great big family and now he lives on in every one of us in so many different ways.”

Amen.

Dan Taylor

6/30/2004

Update of my thoughts on market strategy for those who follow me…in summary, my view has not changed; my positioning has not changed.  As I’ve said previously, we are in the early stages of a deflationary de-leveraging (debt reduction) process globally.  This is NOT going to be fun.

The governments of the world, led by the Keynesians currently in power in the U.S., took round two of this fight (after the free market took round one from Oct. 2007- Mar 2009).  Round three is underway, and it is shaping up to be a doozy.  These same governments, led this time by Europeans fearful of euro collapse, are abandoning the unlimited countercyclical spending policies recommended by the American Treasury for a more disciplined strategy of spending restraint and debt reduction.  Meanwhile, back home in America, mainstream Replublicans and even some moderate Democrats are rethinking their support for the financial equivalent of the Powell Doctrine.  This Bernanke/Geithner/Summers’ “overhwelming force” printing/spending policy appears to be in process of being rejected by voters across the country (as evidenced by the success of the fiscal conservatism campaign platform as well as the Tea Party Republicans this primary season).  

This past weekend’s G20 meeting was a rough weekend for the Americans.  China played a beautiful geopolitical chess move by pre-announcing a new Yuan policy, which effectively took that issue off the G20 agenda. Instead, the focus was squarely on the dissonance between the American ‘Powell doctrine’ spending prescription and the still worsening condition of the global economic patient.  The American left, whose position is elucidated by the Paul Krugmans and Robert Reichs of the world, believes that ever more stimulus is needed.  If it were possible to print paper money indefinitely and spend it indiscriminately without diminishing investor confidence in your ability to pay your bills without devaluing your currency, this strategy might work.  Unfortunately, governments around the world, led by European governments on the verge of collapse, are finding out that investors are losing confidence in their repayment ability (a dangerously slippery slope).  These governments are necessarily peeling away from the American-led march off the fiscal cliff.

As this trend accelerates in coming weeks and months, and it becomes next to impossible to pass further (phony government) stimulus of the economy, “the great recession”, led again by a decline in housing, will likely resume.  When this view becomes closer to market consensus, the decline in the market will likely accelerate, and with no stimulus forthcoming in the near term, it will not be pretty.

In my view, we will re-test, and may even make new lows in stocks; U.S. treasury bonds will continue to move higher in price, lower in yield; The bid is likely to come out of the gold market for a while, as world governments attempt to get deficits under control.  Ultimately no one, including me, knows how this is going to end.  War is probably the safest bet.  It’s going to be ugly.  As I said over a year ago, the excess debt built up over the past quarter century to support profligate spending by individuals and governments alike must be dealt with.  It doesn’t just go away.  Ultimately, there will have to be some new currency regime that replaces the pure fiat system that is in process of failing.  At that point of effective debt repudiation via coordinated devaluation (2012?), gold and other hard assets ought to make their quantum leap higher.

As always, the timing is always the most difficult part to get right.  Here’s my best guess…

Foreseeable future - Stocks down, bonds up, gold down.  Real estate gets whacked again. 

Once the world reaches the point of not being able to take any more pain, and governments throw in the towel and admit they screwed the whole thing up beyond repair (by deregulating critical financial markets and not even coming close to keeping up with the financial engineering that took place on wall street and throughout global financial markets in the past 15 years), then (2012?) you get the currency and debt do-over (devaluation/inflation) and real asset appreciation (gold $5,000?).  That will also likely be the low for stocks in this bear market.  But there’s likely to be a lot of pain between now and then.

Sorry, I don’t do good news for good news sake.  It’s the truth I seek to find and share.  I hope you can handle the truth!  If I’m right, perhaps you’ll all ask me to manage your money for you in the years ahead.  If I’m wrong, recognize that I’m just doing my level best to try and figure out an extremely complicated situation and help others by sharing that perspective.  As always, I’m happy to spend time with anyone who would like to have me review their portfolio positioning, etc.  As always, free of charge.  I hope to be able to use my expertise to be a source of honesty and trust in the investment field for family and friends, a resource that is sorely lacking in a sometimes very confusing, yet critically important, aspect of our lives.

Dan Taylor

Brynne,

It’s hard to find the words to describe how I feel about you.  You truly are one of a kind, and you always have been.  Ever since you were a young toddler, your have brought energy, fun, excitement, love and so many other positive things into our family.  If we could all be a little more like you, this world would be a better place.  I don’t know what better compliment I could pay you than to say that I admire you and want to be more like you.  There aren’t many people I know that I can say that about.  To feel that way about my own daughter makes me so proud of the mature, responsible teenager you have become.  Even as you turn 14 and enter high school, it’s obvious that you are on your way to a happy life.  There’s no more noble goal than to pursue happiness in the way that you are pursuing it - by loving others, serving others, and genuinely wishing love and happiness for others.  The example that you set in our family is a glue that keeps us close to one another.

Brynne, you are loved so deeply that you couldn’t possibly understand yet.  The love a parent feels for their children is simply beyond description.  When you have your own children, you will understand, and you will undoubtedly be one of the greatest mothers this world has ever known.  Until then, continue on your journey of being one of the great children this world has known.  I know these are big statements, Brynne…but they’re not too big for you.  That’s amazing…but true!  Like I said, you are truly one of a kind.  I am so proud of you and the person you have become.

Nature’s first green is gold…her hardest hue to hold.

Her early leaf’s a flower…but only so an hour.

Then leaf subsides to leaf…so Eden sank to grief.

So dawn goes down today…nothing gold can stay.

- Robert Frost

Stay gold, Brynne!

Love Always & Happy Birthday, 

Daddy

My little girl